I am very fond of my memories of the Bulgarian parliamentary elections in 1994. I joint the UDF's campaign team as a volunteer and am proud of their acceptance of the proposed by me campaign theme and my posters for the newspapers. The newspaper campaign and daily photo of a prominent UDF supporter was - "WE WILL VOTE FOR UDF, AGAIN!" . The three posters used are on this page.
The slogan "VICTORY, BULGARIA" and it's poster were Kosyo Mishev and Evgeny Michailov creation, as was the whole election campaign management.
For the last poster, "DEMOCRACY OR SOCIALISM", I used a British original poster from their parliamentary elections, compliments from Mr. Steve Hilton, of Saatchi & Saatchi's government relations office. Great guy! I also worked with Carol, John Major's campaign manager. We all tried hard, but the elections were lost anyway and the Socialist came to ruin Bulgaria again. Well, they are out of office now and I am thrilled.
This was my doomsday scenario for 1995, and I am glad it did not happen that way. V.T.P. June 20, 97
Six years after the Berlin wall crumbled, the spirit of Check Point Charlie resurrects around the dormant but volcanic peninsula - the Balkans. While the West relaxed after the fall of communism and tangled with economic recession, a dirty little war of millennia was restarted in former Yugoslavia by the Serb communist leader Miloshevic and was used by the Russian strategists to reaffirm it's sphere of influence.
Other than moral support from the ultra-nationalist Pan Slavic organizations in Russia, some arms smuggling and a few hundred Afghani veterans looking for something to do, there was not any direct action taken by the Russians. It is rather their non-action policy against Miloshevic and their opposition to the UN and NATO resolutions that gave the Serbs the sign they are the favored child of Mother Russia in the region. Since Bulgaria's first non-socialist government of the UDF looked to the West in 1992 for guidance in reform and severed political and economic ties with Russia, the long-trusted Bulgarians have been out of favor. Only lately with the socialists back in power, there is a lot of maneuvering in Sofia, with the Russians coming on strong in the political and economic arenas.
The pro-Serb stand of Russia could effectively cause the war in Bosnia to drag on until the UN forces withdraw. After heavy fighting and mass casualties, Russia will then force Miloshevic to take the situation under control and extinguish the fire in former Yugoslavia. This is likely to happen after the civil war in Chechnya settles down, because right now the Bosnian news conveniently offsets the Chechen conflict. The latest war in Europe could very well end up with Russia, the peace maker, controlling the Balkans and the West looking the other way red-faced after another fiasco in peace keeping.
History reminds us that Russia dreams for control over the Bosphorus. And that old dream and the desire to keep the straits open for its navy and flow of goods (these days primarily oil and gas) are at the expense of the nations of the region. Although Russia lost economic and military control of Central Europe, there is still the security shield of Ukraine and Belaruss. As NATO plans expansion in Central Europe and the Hungarians, Czechs and the Poles prepare to join the fold, Russia surely does not want to lose the Southern flange of its shield of buffer countries. There are a number of other reasons why Russia wants to maintain influence over this region and here are some of the obvious ones that come to mind.
After Turkey enforced the rules for day time only passage of oil and gas tankers through the straits, and amid rising fears of fundamentalist Islam spreading into Turkey, Russia is looking for other secure routes to transport oil and gas from the Central Asia fields. For example, one of the options now under consideration is a gas pipeline starting in Burgas, Bulgaria, bypassing Turkey completely, and ending in Alexandropolis, Greece. The gas would be shipped by boats on the Black sea to Burgas.
The time comes when a more powerful Russia will look for political victory in order to rebuild the image of the power broker it was, is and will continue to be. In spite of its current reform problems, it is naive not to realize that Russia will emerge as a superpower once again. In its old front yard, Russia may win this time without sending the boys out to fight and will secure its interests in the Balkans for the foreseeable future. It could be the first display of mature diplomatic strength of a newly great power.
What is the current outlook for the nations of the Balkans as affected by the above scenario? Bulgaria and Romania will not be able to join NATO and the EC in the next 20-30 years, if ever. The former Yugoslav republics and Albania, together with Bulgaria and Romania, will develop at a much slower pace compared to Poland, Hungary, the Czech and Slovak republics. Greece, due to it's location, will also grow at a slower pace than the other EC members though it may benefit some from the local trade. This rosy script assumes no playing of the Macedonian card, which if played, could create a Lebanon-like situation in the Balkans.
Socialist governments controlled by the old communist apparatchicks will rule the region and will again look for expanding economic ties with Russia. The Russian underworld will move in due to growing corruption and the lack of effective law enforcement. Russia will provide some markets for the local economies but as soon as the Russian economy strengthens enough that they can increase their imports of higher quality Western goods, they will dump their suppliers from the Balkans, thus creating ground for a new economic slowdown in the region.
The only way out from this depressing scenario is the development of real democracies with free market economies in the region and their early acceptance in EC and NATO. However free the latest elections were in Bulgaria, Romania and Macedonia, the lack of foreign investment and support from the West contributed to socialist majorities in their parliaments. Every nation deserves its rulers but short-sightedness from the West may lead to the destabilization of Europe and establishment of a new Russian sector in it's southeast corner. Early acceptance of Bulgaria and Romania in NATO is more important for the stability of Europe than Hungary, the Czech or Slovak Republics joining the allegiance.
Having said all this, it is not by chance that many Balkan people ask them selves if Malta was not the second Yalta for them. A severe blow to the struggling democrats in these countries is the understanding that securing the free flow of Central Asia's oil and gas to the markets in Europe via pipelines on the Balkan peninsula may lead to renewed Russian domination in the Balkans. On top of all other insults, development of the fields in Central Asia will be paid for by western companies including Chevron, Amoco, British Petroleum and AGIP, most likely not without help from the EBRD, World Bank or other international organizations.
Vance T. Petrunoff
May 1995 All Rights Reserved